You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world

Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be a growth in Web 1.0. This amid the pundits claim that Web 2.0 is the wave of the future.

Statistics from a Nielsen story titled Sponsored Link Advertising (PDF format) could be interpreted as a bellwether.

At pingVision, we get a stream of inquiries - proposed web development projects we are asked to consult on or develop. The projects seem to break into the two "visions" as it were - Web 1.0 and Web 2.0.

It stands to reason that the older, more entrenched technology will be what the latest set of adoptors want to "get on the web."

What do I mean by that? Well, classically there are waves of people who adopt new technology, be it the horseless carriage, the telephone, VCR, cell phones, or web sites.

There are,

1. Early adoptors
2. Mainstream adoptors
3. Late adoptors

1. Early adoptors are ones who see a new technology, or new way of doing things, and they adopt it without much trepidation. They are sometimes called "self-actualized buyers." They rarely need to be "sold" on a product. They see it and seize it.

Those of us who got on the World Wide Web in the 1980s and 1990s come out of that tradition.

2. Mainstream adoptors are not too different from the early adoptors, but they want to avoid fads. An early adoptor might end up with a lasderdisc player - whereas the market plays out by going to DVD format.

This group divides into three sectors:

A. Analytical

B. Empathetic

C. Entrepreneurial

The Analytical person wants lots of figures and facts - the Consumer Reports statistics.

The Empathetic person wants to know how it will effect people.

The Entrepreneurial person wants to know what it will do for the bottom line.

In general this is the mainstream.

3. As for the late adoptors, they come on after just about everyone else has. To go back to the DVD example - if they do watch films at home, they only adopt DVD when they find titles are no longer available on video tape.

The mainstream is at the Web 1.0 threshold because that is mainly what is out there, and that is is the "face" of the web.

Web 2.0 is not on the radar because, in large part, the Web 1.0 is dazzling as it is. Web 1.0 works well enough because it is focused. For example, if I set up my own brochure-like page that people can read, I do not run into too many design issues.

Once, I begin to build a community and have a range of people interacting on a site, ebb and flow become critical and feng shui is key.

The "loose ends" of a me-alone Web 1.0 site increase linearly as the site grows. With a Web 2.0 site, the loose-ends grow exponentially ... but this is where the World Wide Web community is headed.

Web 1.0 is pretty much uni-directional. That is, the message goes up onto a site and - maybe - there might be some room for comments. Mainly it is a "speech."

Web 2.0 is multi-directional. It is a "conversation."

The feng shui comes from designing a system that makes possible a smooth conversation among many people.

As I wrote earlier, simplicity is not simple-minded. It takes a great deal of work to make that happen.

Many people, the first big wave of adoptors is now coming on the scene and for them the world is essentially Web 1.0.

But with Web 2,0 site, many of them communities, they will soon be coming into these conversations and seeing how their own web sites are part of a whole.

The power of the new technology is ahead of where most the the public is today. There is a slingshot effect that is about to make itself felt.

My prediction is that in 18 to 24 months, Web 1.0 will be around, but the action will all be Web 2.0. Time will tell if that prediction will be accurate or not.

[Updated to fix typos.]

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